Five stages: actions and authority
A purchase has five useful steps: find offers, compare them, agree terms, accept the seller’s offer and pay. Agreeing to buy and allowing money to leave an account are separate actions. An agent can perform them for a person or company. We therefore need a record of what it was allowed to buy, from whom and for how much.
For example, the US law E-SIGN §7001(h) allows contracts formed through electronic agents. The agent’s actions must legally count as those of the person or company bound by the contract. This does not make an owner responsible for every model error: permissions, contract terms and applicable law still matter. A digital signature helps check who signed a document and whether it changed afterwards. It does not prove that the person understood every consequence.
Agent actions and human authority
Search
Gather
offers
Compare
Evaluate
terms
Negotiate
Clarify
the offer
Accept
Authority
to contract
Pay
Authority
to charge
The party is a person or organisation. A mandate records authority.
E-SIGN — §7001(h): legal attribution of acts · AP2 Checkout Mandate — Usage; Constraints: merchants and line items · AP2 Payment Mandate — Constraints: payees, amount, budget, recurrence
| Stage | Action | Legal significance | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Search | Gather offers | Gathering offers does not itself mean buying | Instruction; no universal signature requirementE-SIGN §7001(h) |
| Comparison | Evaluate price and terms | Selection is not necessarily acceptance | Offer snapshot and selection criteria |
| Negotiation | Clarify terms | Effects depend on conduct and applicable law | Offer and constraint history |
| Acceptance | Accept within delegated authority | The contract binds a person or company if the agent’s acts legally count as theirs | AP2 Checkout: merchant-signed order dataE-SIGN §7001(h)AP2 Checkout |
| Payment | Present payment authority | Payment authorisation is distinct from the purchase contract | AP2 Payment; consent under applicable payment rulesAP2 PaymentPSD2 |
The 4 August 2026 Amazon v. Perplexity ruling concerns website access under the CFAA — the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, a US law covering computer misuse, including access without permission. On page 17, the court limits its conclusion to that access dispute. It does not decide who pays for a wrong product or when a buyer gets a refund. This article asks a simpler question: how do we check that the agent did what the person actually allowed?
Why now: the 2025–2026 timeline
Changes in status matter more than the number of announcements. A specification establishes a message format. A programme announcement signals an intention to launch. A completed purchase demonstrates a particular integration. None of these events alone measures market size.
Timeline: events have different status
09.2025
AP2
Announcement: Intent / Cart / Payment
v0.2: Checkout + Payment
04.2026
Amex
Future protection announced
Full terms pending
06.2026
Worldline / ING / Mastercard
Approved ticket purchase
One integration, not the market
09.2026
EMVCo
Draft open for comment
Not adopted requirements
A specification, announcement and one purchase do not measure market size.
Google Cloud · AP2 announcement — 17 Sep 2025, How it works: historical intent → cart → payment sequence · AP2 v0.2 — Mandates: two types, open and closed forms · American Express · Agentic Commerce — Agent Purchase Protection; footnotes: future programme and eligibility · Worldline / ING / Mastercard — 2 Jun 2026: ticket purchase with human approval · EMVCo · Agentic payments — 1 Sep 2026: draft, comments by 30 Sep
In September 2025, AP2 was described in terms of Intent, Cart and Payment. Version 0.2 uses two types: Checkout and Payment. Historical terminology must not be inserted into a current schema comparison. Amex announced Agent Purchase Protection in April 2026; at the 27 September recheck, its page still described future protection and promised further terms.
On 2 June, Worldline, ING and Mastercard reported a concert-ticket purchase in the Netherlands, approved by the customer before completion. It is a useful production example of an approved purchase. It does not demonstrate delegation of an open budget for an unspecified sequence of purchases.
In September, EMVCo put a technical framework out for comment. KYA and agentic transaction indicators appear as possible further work. UK Treasury and Bank of Russia consultations address different parts of the problem. Their deadlines are listed separately below: closing comments is not the same as bringing rules into force.
The mandate: what the person allows
A mandate records delegated authority. In AP2 v0.2, Checkout authorises checkout and Payment authorises payment. Each type has an open form constraining a future action and a closed form for a specific action. They are not three mandatory documents in a chain. Relating Checkout and Payment connects commercial content with payment authority without determining the outcome of a legal dispute.
Two types of authority × two forms
Checkout · what we buy
Open: listed shoes, merchant A or B
Closed: selected pair, order from A
Payment · how we pay
Open: up to €120, allowed recipients
Closed: €110 to recipient A for this order
One-off: one operation. Recurring: frequency, usage count and budget.
One-off or recurring use is a separate condition.
AP2 v0.2 — Mandates: two types, open and closed forms · AP2 Checkout Mandate — Usage; Constraints: merchants and line items · AP2 Payment Mandate — Constraints: payees, amount, budget, recurrence
Checkout answers “what are we buying?” Its open form lists permitted items and merchants; its closed form binds a specific merchant-signed order. Payment answers “how are we paying?” Limits on amounts and recipients become permission for a particular payment. A closed Payment includes the amount, currency, recipient, payment instrument and a link to the order. Ordering the right shoes does not permit any charge, and permission to spend €120 does not permit buying any item.
Open does not mean “anything can change before approval”: the agent must stay within agreed limits. Closed records the chosen action. For an autonomous purchase, the agent can prepare it within existing authority without another human click. The AP2 autonomous flow describes this transition.
One-off and recurring use are a separate question. Payment’s Agent Recurrence constraint sets frequency and an optional maximum number of uses; a budget caps total spending. For example, “pay for this service up to €20 monthly, at most 12 times” can permit different amounts. Each payment still gets a specific amount and recipient. Recurring therefore need not mean an identical charge every time, and closed is not a name for a fixed schedule. Checkout continues to govern the items and order separately.
Signing roles cannot be reduced to “the human signs the open mandate and the agent signs everything else”. The agent prepares content; a trusted surface presents it to the user; the merchant signs the checkout object included in a closed Checkout. Authorisation can use a user credential or a trusted agent provider. The verifier must validate the relevant trust chain and constraints. A TAP request signature authenticates the agent and request context; it does not substitute for cardholder consent.
Six fields: an author framework, not a shared standard
Amount
Payment → amount range / budget
Item / merchant
Checkout → line items / allowed merchants
Expiry
AP2 → exp; Visa → instruction expiry
Mode
Checkout / Payment → open / closed
Trade-offs
Checkout → acceptable items, not “best”
Revocation
Visa → cancellation; no shared mechanism
AP2 v0.2: two types, Checkout and Payment; each open or closed.
AP2 v0.2 — Mandates: two types, open and closed forms · AP2 Checkout Mandate — Usage; Constraints: merchants and line items · AP2 Payment Mandate — Constraints: payees, amount, budget, recurrence · Visa Core Rules, 18.04.2026 — §1.7.6.1: issuer → acquirer; §4.1.24.3–11: agentic payments
| Framework field | Implementation | Mechanism | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amount | AP2 Payment | Amount range / budget | Check currency, aggregate spend and concurrent chargesAP2 Payment |
| Merchants and items | AP2 Checkout + Payment | Allowed merchants / line items; allowed payees | Order merchant and payment recipient have different identifiersAP2 CheckoutAP2 Payment |
| Time window | AP2; Visa | exp; explicitly expiring instruction | Expiry does not reverse an executed chargeAP2 CheckoutVisa |
| Mode | AP2 | Open / closed for both types | Forms of authority, not three sequential mandatesAP2 v0.2AP2 Authorization |
| Trade-offs | AP2 Checkout | Acceptable items and quantities | “Most comfortable” needs explicit criteria; no universal semantic fieldAP2 Checkout |
| Revocation | Visa; application control | Visa rules, §4.1.24.9: cancelling a repeated instruction | No common cross-scheme revocation mechanism; AP2 does not fully specify oneVisaAP2 Implementation |
The six fields are my design framework: amount, merchants and items, time window, mode, acceptable trade-offs and revocation. Protocols cover them unevenly. Expiry and revocation are particularly different: a short lifetime narrows the risk window but does not immediately stop an already issued permission. Revoking a token also does not reverse a completed payment.
Before enabling autonomy, the interface should expose exceptions as well as the budget: whether a substitute model is allowed, whether shipping counts toward the cap, and whether an instruction can be extended without fresh consent. Where the specification has no suitable field, the application must either enforce a separate verifiable constraint or omit that guarantee from its promise.
Consent at every step or useful autonomy
Confirmation frequency and delegated authority are different dimensions. A low-price search may run for weeks, but the purchase still requires approval if fresh permission precedes payment. That is how Google describes Buy for me. Amazon Auto Buy instead uses a price condition to trigger purchase without fresh approval, with a stated 24-hour cancellation window and an instruction lasting up to six months.
More confirmations may not improve oversight
X axis: review frequency
From infrequent to frequent
Y axis: oversight quality
Qualitative scale, no numerical values
Model assumption
Reviews help; fatigue can interfere
For a real product
Measure comprehension and detected errors
Qualitative illustration of Turan’s model; no empirical optimum.
Turan · Human oversight model — Theoretical fatigue model, not a user experiment
| Product | Mode | When consent occurs | Evidence limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Buy for me | 2 · approve each purchase | Target-price search upfront; permission before purchase | Product description, not payment statisticsGoogle |
| Amazon Auto Buy | 3 · standing instruction | Buy at target price without fresh approval | 24-hour cancellation; instruction lasts up to six months or cancellationAmazon |
| Worldline / ING / Mastercard | 2 · approve each purchase | Tickets purchased after human approval | Announced 2 Jun 2026 transaction, not evidence of mass deploymentWorldline / ING / Mastercard |
| Amex Agent Purchase Protection | Announced future programme | Authenticated intent and registered agent | Launch and full terms require another checkAmex |
The inverted U illustrates Turan’s theoretical model. Under its assumptions, additional checks initially help and fatigue can later impair oversight. It is not a measured shopper response or an established optimum number of clicks. A product needs its own measurements of constraint comprehension, detected deviations, mistaken approvals and completion time.
My design recommendation is to show the verifiable action: item, merchant, total amount, delivery and return terms. The agent’s summary should not be the sole source of these details. A material change after approval requires rechecking the permission and, if its bounds are exceeded, obtaining new consent. A cancellation window can help after an error but cannot replace validation before charging.
Who pays for the mistake
“Who pays?” can mean an issuer’s obligation to an acquirer, a merchant’s obligation to a buyer, a payment provider’s duty to its customer or a developer’s duty to its client. One reimbursement arrow cannot represent them all. Visa rules, §1.7.6.1 requires payment to an acquirer for a valid transaction. It is an interparticipant settlement rule, not a promise to compensate a buyer for an agent’s selection error. Section 4.1.24.10 of Visa’s network rules allocates cardholder responsibility; private rules do not displace applicable mandatory rights.
Two distinct monetary obligations
Visa network settlement
Issuer → acquirer
§1.7.6.1: a valid transaction
Buyer’s claim
To merchant / payment provider
Grounds, evidence, procedure
Amex: future protection
Eligible card and registered agent
Deviation from authenticated intent
Amex is a separate future programme, not the agent provider in this diagram.
Visa Core Rules, 18.04.2026 — §1.7.6.1: issuer → acquirer; §4.1.24.3–11: agentic payments · PSD2 — Arts 64, 72–74, 76–77: consent, evidence, refunds · Regulation E — §1005.11: electronic transfer errors · Regulation Z — §1026.13: open-end credit billing errors · American Express · Agentic Commerce — Agent Purchase Protection; footnotes: future programme and eligibility
| Situation | Applicable framework | What to establish | Possible action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unauthorised transfer | Europe: PSD2; US: Reg E for covered transfers | Establish consent, authority, notice and exceptions | Payment-provider dispute; the word “agent” does not determine the resultPSD2Regulation E, §1005.2(m) |
| Wrong item within authority | Purchase contract, merchant terms; possible payment-dispute grounds | Signed checkout and agreed parameters | Seek merchant return; selection error is not identical to an unauthorised transferPSD2Regulation ERegulation Z |
| Authority exceeded | Separate review of consent and constraint enforcement | Amount, recipient, item, expiry, delegation chain | Stop new transactions; establish failure and applicable claimsAP2 AuthorizationPSD2 |
| Valid Visa transaction | Obligation between network participants | Visa rules, §1.7.6.1: issuer pays acquirer | Not buyer reimbursement for an agent errorVisa |
| Future Amex protection | Separate programme announcement | Eligible US cards, registered agent, authenticated intent | Deviation from intent; try merchant return where possible; full terms pendingAmex |
EU PSD2 distinguishes consent, unauthorised transactions and specified refunds of authorised transactions. Articles 76–77 provide conditional refunds for transactions initiated by or through the payee, not a general right to reverse any disappointing purchase. US Reg E covers qualifying electronic transfers and error resolution under §1005.11. Regulation E, §1005.2(m) defines unauthorised transfers. Credit cards require separate consideration of Regulation Z, §1026.13. “No approval means a refund; approval means no remedy” is not an accurate summary of these regimes.
Selecting the wrong item within permitted parameters does not automatically turn a transfer into an unauthorised one. Exceeding authority cannot automatically be classified as an ordinary authorised purchase either: evidence of consent and each participant’s failed obligation matter. Remedies depend on jurisdiction, instrument and facts. The new EU Product Liability Directive is no universal refund route for a mistaken purchase: recital 24 excludes pure economic loss as a standalone damage category, while Article 6 lists covered harm. Its temporal scope matters too.
Amex describes future voluntary protection, not currently available universal reimbursement. Published eligibility includes qualifying US cards, a registered agent, authenticated intent received by Amex and a deviation from it. A merchant return should be attempted where possible; subjective expectations are not equivalent to a verifiable instruction. Full terms and the effective launch still require verification.
The selected sources do not provide a representative body of disputes about buying-agent errors. That does not establish the absence of lawsuits, trivial claim values or rules uniformly hostile to claimants. Other explanations include missing statistical categories, merchant returns resolving complaints, private records or incomplete search. These are observational limits, not an established causal model of the market.
Engineering the limits: caps, ledger, disputes, stop
Constraints must be checked outside the model. The agent proposes an operation; a separate executor validates authority, recipient, amount, expiry and remaining budget. A signature without these checks can simply authenticate the wrong action. AP2 treats agents as potentially adversarial, supporting a separation between proposal and execution.
Validate the action before charging
1 · Approval
Constraint version
and signature chain
2 · Proposal
Order and amount
from the agent
3 · Validation
Recipient, expiry
and total budget
4 · Execution
One payment
without duplicates
5 · Evidence
Order, validation
and receipt
Author architecture. Revocation stops future actions, not past payments.
AP2 Security — Security and Privacy Considerations: verification outside the model · AP2 Agent Authorization — User Credential / Trusted Agent Provider; Trusted Surface · Visa Core Rules, 18.04.2026 — §1.7.6.1: issuer → acquirer; §4.1.24.3–11: agentic payments
Consider a hypothetical purchase. A person delegates buying one pair of green shoes in size 38 from merchant A or B, for no more than €120 including shipping, before Friday at 18:00. Only listed models are acceptable; a colour substitution is prohibited. This is an architectural example, not a shipped integration or a promised legal outcome.
1. The interface presents constraints and binds approval to their exact version. An AP2 implementation creates the relevant open Checkout and Payment mandates through its chosen authorisation model. The merchant signs a specific checkout; the delegated party closes mandates within the permitted chain. Hashes bind documents to the action, not merely to the model’s explanation.
2. Before charging, the executor validates signatures, expiry, item and recipient identifiers, total including shipping and whether the order has already executed. Budget reservation and duplicate prevention must withstand concurrent requests: two €100 purchases cannot both consume the same €120 balance. An unavailable validator should stop execution rather than turn the constraint into advice.
3. In one outcome, permitted green shoes cost €110 but feel uncomfortable. Authority checks passed; subjective dissatisfaction does not prove a mandate breach. Merchant return terms and other applicable rights remain relevant. In another outcome, €130 is charged or red shoes are ordered. If the verified order data reveals this, execution should have been rejected. If the order specified green but red shoes arrived, the discrepancy concerns merchant fulfilment. Similar visible outcomes can require different evidence.
4. A dispute needs original approval, constraint version, signature chain, checkout snapshot, validation result, payment receipt and fulfilment or return history. Revoking authority and tokens can stop future operations; completed payments need a separate remedy. Logs should reconstruct the decision without retaining unnecessary personal data. Visa rules, §4.1.24.8 requires the order confirmation to remain available to the cardholder for at least 120 days; this is not a universal retention period for every record.
The example exposes the architecture’s boundary: cryptography can establish which document was approved, and deterministic validation can establish compliance with encoded constraints. Neither proves product quality nor automatically identifies a liable defendant. Those questions depend on substantive obligations and the applicable dispute process.
When the seller sells to the agent
An agent can be steered without compromising a payment token. Ranking bias, a compelling badge or merchant text acts earlier, while the cart is being formed. Experiments help locate these weaknesses; they do not measure the share of deceived real-world buyers.
ACES v3 · VLM · mock shopping app
Claude Sonnet 4
Overall Pick: 24.3%
Sponsored: 8.9%
GPT-4.1
Overall Pick: 19.9%
Sponsored: 8.0%
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Overall Pick: 42.6%
Sponsored: 7.9%
ACES v3 study: selection probabilities, baseline 10%. Not sales or direct API.
ACES v3 — Table 2: VLM mock shopping app; distinct from headless API
| Study | Setup | Result | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACES v3: Overall Pick label (Table 2 in the paper) | VLM mock app; selection baseline 10% | Overall Pick: 24.3 / 19.9 / 42.6% | Claude Sonnet 4 / GPT-4.1 / Gemini 2.5 Flash; not live salesACES v3 |
| ACES v3: Sponsored label (Table 2 in the paper) | Same context and model order | Sponsored: 8.9 / 8.0 / 7.9% | Do not combine with the headless API resultsACES v3 |
| Magentic Marketplace: first proposal (Figure 8 in the Microsoft Research post) | Simulation, model-specific results | First seller: GPT-4o 100%; Claude Sonnet 4.5 93.3% | Qwen3-14B: 0% with task failures; not “80–100% for all”Magentic Marketplace |
| Turan, 2026 | Theoretical fatigue model | An inverted U is possible under the assumptions | No measured optimum number of confirmations for a real productTuran |
Results from visual-storefront experiments in the ACES study must not be combined with results from its direct API setting. Our table uses only the results for models that read text and images (VLMs). The authors describe those results in Table 2 and its accompanying explanation in version v3 of the paper. Overall Pick increases selection while Sponsored reduces it against the baseline in this setup. Transfer to new models, real inventories or a different choice-set size needs another experiment.
Magentic Marketplace’s first-responder effect varies by model, and task failure must not be interpreted as immunity to bias. A practical evaluation should vary offer order, badges and response delays. Such tests complement authority checks: an agent can make a poor choice while remaining within budget.
OpenAI’s Sponsored Agents announcement describes a different observed format: a person enters a conversation with a brand agent. It does not demonstrate advertising sold to autonomous buyer agents. Paid promotion in machine channels remains a separate forecast. Testing it requires a placement interface, commercial terms and observable effects on agent selection, not merely “agent” in an advertising product’s name.
Machine markets: what forecasts measure
Buying an API call and ordering shoes differ in subject matter, fulfilment and potential disputes. A machine payment can buy data or compute, but M2M alone says nothing about delegated authority: software may spend a fixed amount or choose purchases within a budget. Machine settlement is therefore a separate context, not the next autonomy level.
What is bought and what is delegated are separate axes
Consumer goods
Order, delivery, quality
Approval or standing instruction
Machine resource
APIs, data, compute
Fixed authority or a budget
M2M is an application context. A protocol name does not establish market size.
Google Shopping — Agentic checkout: permission before purchase · Amazon · Alexa for Shopping — Auto Buy: target price, 24-hour cancellation, six-month expiry · x402 — Dynamic dashboard: historical values not independently reproduced
An average transaction value needs a consistent numerator and denominator. A historical x402 record contains $24.24 million and 75.41 million operations: for the same period and population, that would yield about $0.3214 per operation. The dynamic dashboard snapshot could not be independently reproduced. The division therefore checks a conditional calculation, not an established market average. A usable estimate needs an archive, window dates, an operation definition and treatment of duplicates or self-payments.
| Source | Estimate | Year, geography, scope | Definition and limitations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $190–385bn | 2030 · US · e-commerce through agents | Forecast; source-specific coverage and adoption assumptionsMorgan Stanley |
| Bain | $300–500bn | 2030 · US · purchases initiated, influenced or completed by AI | Includes agent influence; excludes search/discovery-only journeysBain |
| McKinsey | $900bn–1tn; global $3–5tn | 2030 · US B2C and, separately, global market | Orchestrated revenue: agent participation at different stagesMcKinsey |
These are source-authored scenarios, not measured sales. Bain excludes journeys using AI only for search, while including agent influence further along the journey. McKinsey estimates broader agent orchestration. A shared forecast year does not imply a shared methodology. An overall spread is not meaningful without aligning years, geography and definitions.
Missing comparable public volumes mean this source selection cannot reliably establish scale. They do not establish an absent market. A follow-up should separately count AI-assisted recommendations, approved agent checkout, debits without fresh consent and machine resource payments. Otherwise, growing referrals from chat can be mistaken for growth in autonomous payments.
What regulators in Russia and elsewhere are discussing
For Russia, distinguish a regulator’s document, proposed infrastructure and a consumer-accessible product. The commercial smart-contract platform concept discusses programmable execution within digital-ruble infrastructure. Sender limits and conditional settlement resemble agent controls conceptually, but are not a complete consent or liability regime for every AI buyer.
There is no basis to claim that standing instructions can appear only after a particular digital-ruble feature: other payment instruments can support them. Nor can willingness surveys or small scenario tests substitute for transaction measurements. Stated intentions do not establish market share, and successful test purchases do not establish volume.
| Window | Document status | Comment deadline | What the next document may establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMVCo | Draft technical framework | 30 Sep 2026 | Check final text and change log; deadline does not mean adoptionEMVCo |
| Bank of Russia · smart contracts | Discussion paper | 30 Sep 2026 | Check published responses and status of proposed sender limitsBank of Russia · Smart contracts30.09.2026 |
| HM Treasury | Payment services consultation | 6 Oct 2026 | Check government response; Q15 is not a new ruleHM Treasury |
| Bank of Russia · financial-market strategy | Draft directions for 2027–2029 | 9 Oct 2026 | Check final document separately from the close of commentsBank of Russia · Financial market 2027–2029 |
These are four different processes, not four equivalent reforms. At the 27 September check, all listed deadlines were still ahead. They close comments without guaranteeing publication of results that day. Final texts and effective dates require separate analysis; drafts must not be read as adopted requirements.
The payment-rights ladder and forecasts
My ladder measures the scope of permitted decisions, from reading to allocating a budget. It is a design tool, not a legal classification or a vendor maturity ranking. One product can operate at different levels for different actions: choosing when to buy autonomously while requiring approval for an address change.
Levels 0–4: scope of permitted decisions
0 · Read
No actions
1 · Recommend
Human buys
2 · Approve
Google Buy for me
3 · Instruct
Amazon Auto Buy
4 · Budget
AP2 capability
Author ladder. M2M can use different levels; it is not level 5.
Google Shopping — Agentic checkout: permission before purchase · Amazon · Alexa for Shopping — Auto Buy: target price, 24-hour cancellation, six-month expiry · AP2 Payment Mandate — Constraints: payees, amount, budget, recurrence
| Level | Authority | Example or capability | Evidence to retain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 · Read | No authority to act | Information collection | Sources and access log |
| 1 · Recommend | Human completes purchase | Suggested cart | Proposal and selection rationale |
| 2 · Approved purchase | Approve a specific order | Google Buy for me; Worldline example | Order, approval and receiptGoogleWorldline / ING / Mastercard |
| 3 · Standing instruction | Predefined trigger | Amazon Auto Buy | Condition, trigger, expiry and cancellationAmazon |
| 4 · Budget | Choose transactions within constraints | AP2 open mandates can carry such constraints | Spend ledger, per-operation validation, revocation; specification is not adoption evidenceAP2 Payment |
Moving up means making a new delegated decision explicit, rather than merely removing another click. A budget permits choosing multiple transactions and consuming an aggregate balance. That requires cumulative spend checks, not just a per-payment cap. Protocol fields demonstrate that a constraint can be represented; general product availability requires separate evidence.
| Author forecast, 27 Sep 2026 | Deadline | Confirmation | Refutation / uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amex launches protection with published terms | 31 Dec 2027 | Confirm: effective terms, launch date and available registration | Refute: cancelled or still coming soon at deadline; unavailable evidence → unresolvedAmex |
| A generally available consumer level-4 budget launches | 31 Dec 2028 | Confirm: open access and repeated purchases of different items under an aggregate budget without per-purchase approval | Refute: repeated catalogue check finds only invitations, pilots or per-purchase approval |
| Advertising explicitly targets purchasing agents | 31 Dec 2028 | Confirm: public paid interface promoting offers in an agent-to-merchant channel | Refute: verifiable products remain human-facing; lack of revenue disclosure does not refute launch |
| A level-3 goods-purchase instruction becomes available in Russia | 31 Dec 2028 | Confirm: published terms and reproducible triggered purchase without fresh approval | Refute: checked products require fresh approval; any payment rail is eligible |
Product forecasts will be checked against the public pages and terms covered here, plus new launches found in a repeat search. A positive example establishes existence; failure to find one remains a bounded search result. “Unresolved” is therefore necessary alongside confirmation and refutation. Dispute statistics can inform risk assessment but cannot by themselves establish that a product has left its pilot.
The practical result is a verifiable chain: the person understands the boundaries, the system records authority, an independent executor validates the action and the log preserves evidence. Contractual and statutory remedies must be considered separately. The chain makes autonomy inspectable; keeping remedies separate prevents a valid signature from being mistaken for a reimbursement promise.
Seven conclusions on the right to pay
- 01The contract binds a person or company. A mandate records what the agent is allowed to do.
- 02AP2 v0.2 defines Checkout and Payment, each open or closed. The historical three-mandate description must not be mixed with the current schema.
- 03The six fields and levels 0–4 are author design tools. M2M describes a context, not another autonomy level.
- 04Payment consent and compensation for the wrong product are separate questions. Payments between the banks are not a buyer refund.
- 05Amex protection is announced as a future programme with eligibility conditions. It cannot be promised to every user today.
- 06A separate service must check limits before payment. Staying within those limits does not guarantee a good purchase or a refund.
- 07Experiments reveal biases under specific conditions. Public data does not establish overall autonomous-purchase volume; this is not proof that the market is absent.
Network rules, specifications, courts, regulators, studies and evidence boundaries
This bibliography contains sources used in this revision. Links in the text, table rows and figure notes lead to supporting documents, with section or page locators. The historical registry of 586 records remains in the research dossier; its size does not mean every source was rechecked. Unreproduced values and future statuses are identified separately.
Documents and studies
- E-SIGN — §7001(h): legal attribution of acts
- Amazon v. Perplexity — 4 Aug 2026, p. 17: scope of the CFAA holding
- AP2 v0.2 — Mandates: two types, open and closed forms
- Google Cloud · AP2 announcement — 17 Sep 2025, How it works: historical intent → cart → payment sequence
- AP2 · Implementation Considerations — Mandate Management: management and limited lifetimes; no common revocation mechanism
- AP2 Checkout Mandate — Usage; Constraints: merchants and line items
- AP2 Payment Mandate — Constraints: payees, amount, budget, recurrence
- AP2 Agent Authorization — User Credential / Trusted Agent Provider; Trusted Surface
- AP2 Security — Security and Privacy Considerations: verification outside the model
- Visa Core Rules, 18.04.2026 — §1.7.6.1: issuer → acquirer; §4.1.24.3–11: agentic payments
- Visa Trusted Agent Protocol — HTTP Message Signatures: agent signature, not buyer consent
- American Express · Agentic Commerce — Agent Purchase Protection; footnotes: future programme and eligibility
- PSD2 — Arts 64, 72–74, 76–77: consent, evidence, refunds
- Regulation E — §1005.11: electronic transfer errors
- Regulation E · Definitions — §1005.2(m): actual authority and exceptions
- Regulation Z — §1026.13: open-end credit billing errors
- Directive (EU) 2024/2853 — Recital 24, Arts 6 and 22: damage and application
- Worldline / ING / Mastercard — 2 Jun 2026: ticket purchase with human approval
- Google Shopping — Agentic checkout: permission before purchase
- Amazon · Alexa for Shopping — Auto Buy: target price, 24-hour cancellation, six-month expiry
- ACES v3 — Table 2: VLM mock shopping app; distinct from headless API
- Microsoft Research · Magentic Marketplace — Figure 8: first-seller share varies by model
- Turan · Human oversight model — Theoretical fatigue model, not a user experiment
- OpenAI · Reimagining advertising with AI — 16 Sep 2026: a human converses with a brand agent
- x402 — Dynamic dashboard: historical values not independently reproduced
- Morgan Stanley — US 2030 forecast: $190–385bn agentic e-commerce
- Bain · 2030 Forecast — US 2030: $300–500bn; purchases involving or influenced by AI
- McKinsey · Agentic commerce opportunity — US B2C 2030: $900bn–1tn; global $3–5tn
- HM Treasury · Payment services consultation — Paras 3.30–3.35, Q15; comments by 6 Oct 2026
- EMVCo · Agentic payments — 1 Sep 2026: draft, comments by 30 Sep
- Bank of Russia · Smart contracts — Sections 2–3: architecture and execution controls; concept, not effective rules
- Bank of Russia · Consultation notice — 18 Jun 2026: comments through 30 Sep inclusive
- Bank of Russia · Financial market 2027–2029 — Draft: comments by 9 Oct 2026
Related reading
- The Agent Economy: Who Benefits When Machines Make Deals →Task markets, delegation and the table of payment protocols — the context in which the mandate becomes a question of its own
- Minority Report: When Code Became Cheap →The trust ladder read → recommend → act by action class, which this article extends into money
- AI Security in Software Development →Injections, tool poisoning and the permission ladder — the same attacks a buyer agent meets here
- The Agent Harness: Past, Present and Future →Words and walls: why limits and the ledger must execute outside the model rather than live in the prompt