[1/2 ]How to Make the World Add Up (Lies, brazen lies and statistics) (Category Math)

It’s funny how Tim Harford’s book “How to Make the World Add Up” was titled in Russian.Lies, brazen lies and statistics" The phrase is certainly loud and the book probably sells well, but this translation completely loses the meaning of the phrase from the original title, or rather “make the world add up”, which in this context means the desire for the world to “converge”, that is, the information and data around us were clear, logical and correspond to reality. Tim’s book is about how statistics can be used to manipulate and distort the truth. The author offers ten simple rules. (+ one gold)It will help the reader to learn to distinguish truth behind numbers and not to succumb to cognitive traps. And here are the rules.

1. Listen to the voice of your heart. You need to be able to stop and determine the emotional reaction that a statement causes. The main thing is not to make decisions under the influence of emotions. The author tells about the scam of the century with Vermeer’s paintings, which succumbed to Bredius, the main expert on the work of this artist. He did so under the influence of his emotions and expectations. 2. Consider your personal experience. It is important to rely not only on numbers, but also on context and our own observations. The author calls statistics the look of a bird, and his own observations the look of a worm. Understanding the contradictions between them will help to better understand the situation and understand the issue. 3. Don't rush your calculations. It is important not only to be able to work with numbers, but also to ask questions about exactly what is being counted and what stories are hidden behind it. I have often seen dashboards used to make decisions, but none of the decision makers fully understood the terms and methodology of calculation:) And the questions are, what exactly do we think here caused a fight-or-flight reaction.

The remaining rules in next post.

#Math #Management #Statistics