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[2/2] The GenAI Market in 2025: Adoption, Talent, Investment, and Growth Scenarios (Category AI)

#AI #Engineering #Software #Management #Economics

Continuing my discussion of this report, GenAI is moving into practical adoption. According to Sber’s figures, 40% of Russian IT companies have already launched fully functioning GenAI projects, while only 8% have not tried AI at all. Businesses no longer treat generative models as a curiosity: they put them in their strategies and build teams around them. Some 45% of companies now have dedicated AI departments or centers of expertise. GenAI has become part of digital transformation.

Generative models have proved versatile, and several main use cases have emerged. Here are the key areas where Russian businesses use GenAI in practice:

  • Content creation: text, code, and images. Automating routine creative work, from articles, descriptions, and marketing materials to source code generated from a specification.
  • Intelligent search and knowledge bases. LLMs combined with RAG enable search across internal documents, reference material, and technical documentation. Users ask questions in natural language; the system retrieves information and generates an answer from internal data.
  • Customer chatbots and voice assistants. Some 59% of companies now use AI assistants to communicate with users. Generative AI makes bots more flexible: they can understand more complex questions and compose natural answers instead of choosing a canned response.
  • Speech analytics and monitoring. GenAI analyzes calls for emotion or signs of fraud: models transcribe conversations and identify suspicious patterns. Another example is transcribing calls and meetings, then automatically producing minutes and action lists.
  • Data analysis and report generation. LLMs can consume raw data and produce a readable report, whether a sales summary, an analytical memo, or an answer to an ad hoc query.

Rapid adoption has exposed a shortage of qualified people. Competition for talent pushes salaries up, and companies are setting up internal training programs. Many organizations have also invested in their own expertise, training people for their needs and developing product teams with AI skills.

Funding for GenAI projects in Russia is concentrated among the biggest players. Estimates suggest that the Sber ecosystem and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) provide most of the investment. The market for LLM-based products in 2024 is estimated at only about 35 billion rubles.

The report’s authors outline several possible paths for Russia’s GenAI market through 2030:

  • Pessimistic scenario: stagnation. Tight restrictions remain; isolated incidents such as inaccurate answers or leaks disappoint businesses; regulators introduce strict barriers. Companies wind down after pilots, annual market growth stays around 10–15%, and GenAI remains a niche.
  • Realistic scenario: gradual growth. Large players keep investing, successful use cases gradually emerge, and business confidence grows. The market expands by roughly 25% annually, reaching an estimated $4 billion by 2030. GenAI establishes itself in sectors such as finance, retail, and manufacturing, but the gap with global leaders remains substantial.
  • Optimistic scenario: a breakthrough and expansion. This would require easing technology restrictions, training specialists, and visible successes that encourage medium-sized businesses to adopt at scale. Growth would be around 35–40% a year, close to the global pace. GenAI projects would become routine in most companies, with the market reaching $5–6 billion by 2030.

We can see GenAI becoming a familiar tool, but its development could still follow different paths depending on participants within Russia and the wider political situation.

#Engineering #AI #Software #Management #Economics