"The economy won't survive"? An alarming call for Russia / Oleg Vyugin about taxes, ruble and mortgage (Category Economics)

Sometimes I watch our program "Money does not sleep", in which hosts and guests discuss economic topics very dynamically and visually. And specifically, release It was interesting that it discussed the current state and prospects of the Russian economy. 2025-2026 years. To discuss this topic, Oleg Vyugin came to visit Rina Akhmadulina - Honored Economist, HSE Professor, former First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, ex-Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Moscow Exchange. They talked for more than an hour and had time to discuss many topics, among which the following were the main topics:

📉****🧾 Tax pressure and stagnation The economy maintains a high tax burden, signs of stagnation and the risk of tax shortages, despite their increase, the budget is “tightened”.

📈****High rates and business problems The key rate remains high, its reduction in the coming months is unlikely, which increases the problems of enterprises, provoking the growth of bad loans.

🏦****💰 NWF and budget The NWF does not plan to spend funds to cover the budget deficit - they count on alternative sources of income, but in case of a serious shortage, a revision is possible.

💹****🇷🇺 Status of the ruble A strong ruble is the result of lower imports and stable exports; the exchange rate is stable and its artificial weakening is not planned.

🤑****🏦 Banking sector Banks are the main beneficiaries of inflation and high rates, but their incomes will shrink as inflation slows. Additional taxes on banks are not considered so as not to create additional risks for the system.

Industries at Risk Under attack - coal industry, metallurgy, automotive industry. Sustainable - premium real estate, retail. IT and medicine are also losing benefits, development is difficult.

💵****📊 Debt market and investment Banks are shifting borrowers to the bond market, and investors should be careful, especially in vulnerable industries. Large portfolios - in real estate, bonds, a little - in stocks, gold.

🏡****🔑 Mortgage and real estate prospects The real estate market is stable, prices in Moscow are growing due to the reduction of new buildings and price management.

#Economics #Management