The poll that changed polls (Category Math)

Interesting. paper postal 1936 The Literary Digest, a major and well-respected newspaper, has received two million subscribers. This poll was conducted before the next election of the President of the United States and subscribers simply had to choose the candidate they would support in the elections. The poll results predicted a confident victory for the Republican candidate, and reality gave the opposite result - namely, a victory for a Democrat with a one-and-a-half advantage. This discrepancy in forecast and facts eventually led to the closure of the newspaper, and the reason was simply that the journal did not take into account the fact that the accuracy of the forecast is critically affected by the representativeness of the sample from the general population:)) And if simple, then in order to obtain plausible results, it is necessary to correctly form a lot of those who will be surveyed.

P.S. After such stories for some reason I remember catchphrase

There are three kinds of lies: lies, brazen lies, and statistics. more 100 Mark Twain credited British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli years ago.

#Math #Data #Statistics