O’Reilly founder Tim O’Reilly wrote a good article on AI and the Next Economy
O’Reilly founder Tim O’Reilly wrote a good article. AI and the Next Economy
The main ideas of the article from AI:
*The economy as a circulation The author argues that the economy is not just production, but production + demand. Demand requires widely distributed purchasing power. You cannot build a prosperous society by leaving most people behind.
The problem of narratives about AGI Many Narratives About Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) suggest that: • Productivity will increase • GDP will increase • But it ignores the question: who will be the buyers if most people lose their jobs and income?*
*Two versions of the future
- The Economics of Discovery: AI Could Help Solve Global Problems (energy, materials, diseases)but • Discoveries тия Economic Value • Between discovery and widespread implementation – a long way • If the control of technology is concentrated, we will have a feudalism of discovery.
- Replacement of labor – AI will replace intellectual work, but: • If wages disappear, who will buy the goods? • The fall in wages in the economy will lead to instability
Key lessons from history The author gives examples: Henry Ford paid high wages and reduced working hours, creating a mass market for his cars Amazon and Google originally created a circular economy (flywheel effect)But over time, they began to extract rent. • Decentralization (PC, Internet, open source) Encourage innovation; centralization captures value
What do you do? AI labs: • Measure success not only by the capabilities of models, but also by their distribution. • Create open interfaces, portability, compatibility • Avoid artificial barriers Companies: • Not just cutting costs through AI • Investing productivity dividends in employees (Increased wages, reduced hours, retraining) Governments: • Investing in infrastructure and institutions for the new economy • Consider the shift from labor taxes to capital gains taxes
The main metaphor William Blake said, “The fertile will cease to be fertile unless the Eater, like the sea, accepts the excess of his pleasures.”
Production must be consumed, the system must circulate. The AI economy needs a flywheel. (flywheel)It will ensure the widespread distribution of goods, not their concentration.*