The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21th Century (The following 100 Forecast of events of the XXI century)

I used to. told about the module about strategy from Andrei Shishakov and materials that he recommended to read. Among these materials was a book by the American political scientist George Friedman, which he published in the United States. 2009 year and in which the forecast for 21 century. Friedman created a consulting agency StratforHe specializes in geopolitics.

I was interested in the forecast itself, but rather Friedman’s model, where he uses the history of states and their geopolitical interests to predict conflicts and tensions in the world. The bottom line is that forecasts can easily diverge from reality, since it has a probabilistic nature, but the model of reflections is something useful that you can try to use in your reflections on the fate of the world:) Friedman is an American political scientist, so he predicts that the United States will remain the only global superpower in the world. 21 The rest of the world will try to push this king of the mountain off the pedestal. (But that's not going to happen in 21 century). Friedman is very frank in his formulation. 5 U.S. geopolitical goals, which seem plausible in terms of the hegemon’s behavior:

1. The complete dominance of the U.S. Army in North America
2. Eliminating any threat to the United States from any Western Hemisphere State
3. Complete control of maritime access to the United States and prevent any possibility of invasion from the sea
4. Total domination of the world's oceans to strengthen U.S. physical security and control the international trading system
5. Depriving any country of the ability to resist the global supremacy of US naval forces Interestingly, in sum, these theses lead to the fact that the United States is profitable to add fuel to the fire and start and support regional conflicts in Europe, Asia, the Pacific and anywhere in the world. Moreover, in these conflicts, the United States does not necessarily come out as a formal winner - it is enough for the parties to the conflict to spend their forces, and the United States earned on this:) In general, a very pragmatic position. I used to play Age of Empires as a kid, where I was with my civilization on a separate island and there were multiple civilizations on the central continent. It was necessary just to develop and not to climb on the edge, but to control that on the main continent no one made progress and burned their forces in the general confrontation. And then you could come and finish the game, connecting the fleet and amphibious forces.

If you go back to the book itself, the author gave a similar forecast.

1. In the mid-2010s, Russia will try to expand its sphere of influence in the West and will face Poland. (missed a little). China Will Overtake Most Leaders This Decade
2. In the 2020s, Russia will try to regain control of the post-Soviet space, but will face opposition and break up into separate areas. Other countries of the former USSR will also fall apart. China, too, will stumble and the central government will lose control, and China will collapse.
3. In the 2030s, new leaders will emerge: Poland, Turkey and Japan. Poland will pick up the banner in Eastern Europe and recover in the territory of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and take over the eastern part of Russia. Turkey will pick up the banner of the main power in the Muslim world and will recover in the territory of the Ottoman Empire and take the southern republics of the USSR and the southern part of Russia. And Japan will invade China again and become a player. #1 Pacific
4. The author then makes predictions at the end. 21 century.

In 2015 Russia and China are not completely destroyed, and in China, on the contrary, the central authoritarian power is sharply tightened.

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